Japan’s uncompromising stance in maintaining tariffs on imported rice, wheat, beef, pork, dairy and sugar – the country’s sacred farm products list – could prove costly in the long run. Despite the more positive tone of the government in terms of committing to free trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the decision to maintain tariffs on key exports attracted widespread criticism from US farm groups in May 2014, such as the National Association of Wheat Growers, US Wheat Associates, USA Rice Federation, the National Pork Producers Council and the International Dairy Foods Association. Given the influence of these bodies in US Congress, a refusal to support the TPP might jeopardise future negotiations. We are of the view that the government will continue to work gradually to reduce tariffs on its farm products and cut down on subsidies for local farmers. As such, we believe that the scrapping of the four-decade ‘gentan’ subsidy programme for rice farmers is an example of a policy in the right direction.
The Japan Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)’s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI’s Japan Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
BMI Industry View
An analytical summary of BMI’s latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Japan.
Industry SWOT Analysis
At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.
Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
BMI’s forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.
Methodology & Sourcing
The Japan Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
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